CEA Fellow: Daniel Trefler

Daniel Trefler is the Chair in Competitiveness and Prosperity at the Rotman School of Management, a Senior Research Fellow at the NBER and a Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada.

Daniel is known for his path-breaking contributions to fundamental research and his ongoing contributions to public policy debates surrounding inequality, innovation, AI and trade agreements. He has advised extensively on productivity, CETA, NAFTA, the WTO, managing Canada’s relationships with the US and China, and international regulation of AI.

The importance of Daniel’s work has been recognized through numerous distinctions including the 2016 Killam Prize in Social Sciences (Canada’s ‘Nobel Prize’), the 2016 Bank of Canada Fellowship Award, and the Canada Research Chair. Internationally, his distinctions include the 2011 Ohlin Lecturer (Sweden) and invited public lectures from Harvard to Tsinghua. His work has been cited by The New York Times, Newsweek, Wall Street Journal, and The Economist.

On the research side, Daniel studies the effects of international trade—both positive (productivity, innovation) and negative (inequality, job loss). His first wave of research (1990s) challenged prevailing trade models, showing they conflicted with observed patterns in technology and inequality. His solution is now standard in undergraduate and PhD curricula. In the 2000s, he pioneered testing of the ‘New International Trade’ emphasizing firm-level capabilities over national comparative advantage. His quantification of how trade agreements affect productivity, innovation, and inequality, has been cited by Ministers and Prime Ministers. His third wave (2010s) explored how trade shapes civil society, including constitutional structures and elite influence. The fourth and current wave examines AI’s impacts on trade and society.

On the policy side, Daniel has demonstrated a deep and ongoing desire to better Canada. He has advised Global Affairs Canada on CETA, FDI, CUSMA renegotiations, China, and most recently WTO revitalization. His guidance on international AI regulation has been sought by the WTO, OECD, the Royal Society (UK), and the National Academy of Sciences (USA). In Canada, he advises the Bank of Canada on trade, served on Ontario’s Task Force on Competitiveness, Productivity, and Economic Progress, and sits on C.D. Howe’s International Economic Policy Advisory Council as well as its new Trade Crisis Working Group. His work on children earned him the Noni MacDonald Award from the Canadian Paediatric Society.

Daniel is a committed mentor having supervised over 20 PhDs who now shape research and policy at leading universities and international organizations worldwide.